The Europa, iPhone and GPLv3 Trifecta

Last week was a big one for technology enthusiasts and software developers.

The Eclipse Foundation shipped Europa, the huge simultaneous upgrade/release of 21 open-source projects. Apple shipped the iPhone, its groundbreaking multi-purpose mobile device. And the Free Software Foundation updated its General Public License for open source software to v3.

What do each of these seemingly unrelated events have in common, other than their appearance during the last week in June? Plenty.

First: Each of these new releases was planned very visibly, and each was eagerly anticipated.

• There have been a myriad betas of each Eclipse project, and many developers were already working with early code.

• High-paid corporate lawyers, armchair lawyers, software experts, entrepreneurs and technology pundits have publicly debated every inch of each GPLv3 draft.

• The hype around the iPhone reminded me of nothing less than Windows 95, where people stood in line at midnight to receive their devices.

Second: The actual impact of each of these releases will be big – but we don’t know how big.

• The Eclipse Europa release is part of a consistent annual cycle of software updates. It’s anchored by version 3.3 of the IDE, which has strong incremental improvements. Changes to other projects vary from significant to esoteric. The Eclipse Foundation, in its press release promoting Europa, highlighted nine of the projects with such language as “The Eclipse Modeling project has updated the Eclipse Modeling Framework (EMF) to support Java 5 generics, allowing for creation and management of more complex and flexible data models.” Despite this bland description, the Europa release demonstrates that Eclipse has legs.

• While not perfect, the iPhone is technologically impressive. I’m not going to buy one until my carrier offers it (I refuse to switch mobile carriers in order to use a specific handset). Hype aside, what’s significant about the iPhone is that it’s the first truly user-friendly device to have a real browser, and real full-time connectivity. Expect to see many other similar “no compromises” mobile devices, not only from Apple, but also from Microsoft, Symbian, Motorola, Nokia, Samsung, RIM and other players. What the iPhone enthusiasm means, beyond that Apple is unparalleled at marketing, is that people want those “no compromises” devices, and they want them to be easy to use.

• GPLv3’s potential impact on the open source movement does not depend on how many projects decide to migrate to it. The license offers enterprise customers and major software companies more confidence in the intellectual-property foundations behind open source software in general, and Linux in particular (if Linux goes to GPLv3, which is uncertain). This reinforced the message that open source is seriously business.

Third: Microsoft is not doing any of these technology breakthroughs.

This isn’t Windows 95, this isn’t the Xbox, this isn’t Windows Vista, this isn’t MSN. Also, note that today’s other big-hype company, Google, isn’t there either. That means that other companies beyond Microsoft and Google can innovate. But there is going to be a Microsoft response to each of these, you can count on it.

• The primary motivation behind Eclipse is to help is member companies (such as IBM, Oracle and BEA) save money by collaborating on their toolchains. However, you can’t look at the cross-platform Eclipse without viewing it as the primary competitor to Microsoft’s Visual Studio. While Microsoft has never challenged Eclipse directly, it’s clear that Bill & Co. must view it as a threat. After all, Microsoft knows that developers are incredibly influential when it comes to deployment platforms, particularly on the back end. Every developer who chooses to build server apps using Eclipse instead of VS is potentially denying Microsoft a place in corporate data center for Windows and Windows Server apps. Expect Microsoft to respond sooner or later. It may not be soon, but Microsoft can’t keep ignoring Eclipse.

• The iPhone dovetails nicely with Apple’s iTunes service and iPod music player. On the surface, doesn’t compete with anything strategic from Microsoft, whose MSN Music service and Zune music players are minor players. However, Microsoft is trying to be a big kahuna in the phone market, with Windows CE, Windows Mobile and Windows Smartphone. It’s not just about phones: Microsoft wants to supply clients end-to-end, from desktops to tablet to phone, tying them together with Windows servers and MSN services, all programmed through Visual Studio. The iPhone is a threat on Microsoft’s own turf. Expect Microsoft to respond as soon as the hype has calmed down. I expect to see a Microsoft announcement this summer.

• GPLv3 was inspired, in part, by some longstanding holes in GPLv2. But it was also inspired by Microsoft’s threats against the open source movement, its attacks against Linux, and most recently, its IP-sharing agreements with major Linux distributors, namely Novell. In other words, Microsoft is attempting to compete against open source software by waving around its intellectual property portfolio, instead of competing on price, features and security. Microsoft has a huge number of well-paid lawyers. The open source movement does not. This is a problem for the open source movement; GPLv3 is an attempt to solve that problem. Since IANAL, I don’t know if GPLv3 will accomplish that goal. Expect Microsoft respond obliquely, by by spreading FUD about GPLv3 and open source in general.